Is this the break Federer needs to get back on track?

Roger Federer must be feeling pretty happy today. He may get mobbed every time he sets foot in the Olympic Village, and he may not get a chance to actually eat his food in the canteen, but he won’t care. Because the draw is out and it looks good.

Nadal, Djokovic, and Murray – the form player coming into the Olympics – are all in the other half of the draw. OK there are some players in Fed's half who have unexpectedly beaten him recently (step forward Simon and Karlovic) but I can’t imagine lightening will strike twice.

So provided he get’s through his first round encounter with the erratic hard hitting Tursunov, and possible encounters with Canas and Nalbandian, he should have a nice run to the final.

Compare that with Rafa who is likely to get Lleyton in the second round, Querrey or Andreev in the third, Murray in the quarters, and Djokovic in the semi. You wouldn’t bet against Nadal after his recent run, but he will deserve a medal if he comes through that lot.

You can read it here

UPDATE: It just gets better for Roger. Karlovic has pulled out due to illness. Plus, I think Nalbandian may actually be in the other half of the draw, not certain, as the draw document is not very user friendly.

24 hours in Cincy

Well it's been a busy 24 hours in Cincy. Yesterday I watched Andy Murray blow Tursunov off the court with ease. Unfortunately I can't find it on Youtube but if you can, check out the second and third games of the second set.

A series of outrageous shots saw Murray break and then consolidate. Spectacular stuff. The backhand as he broke serve had me jumping out of the chair!

And then of course, shortly after I had put up a post on Roger living on borrowed time, Karlovic took advantage of Roger's lack of confidence to dump him out of the tournament, and hand the No 1 spot to Rafa.

And then today we saw another side of Andy Murray. If yesterday was all sublime skills and shotmaking, today was street-fighting and mental toughness as he can from a set down to beat Carlos Moya.

One final thought before I head to bed, you must read Bodo's diagnosis on Federer's problems, it's all down to Seven-Day Tournament Influenza. I kid you not...

Play of the week

Mercedes ATP Play of the week. Dmitry Tursunov V Andy Murray. A great rally in Hamburg which ends with Tursunov hitting a winner off a ball which is behind him. Watch it here.

Federer v Murray - tomorrow

Sounds terrible but I can't remember ever getting excited about the Dubai Open before. But tomorrow is a different matter as we have Federer v Murray in round one.

Both players had disappointing defeats at the Aussie Open and both will have a point to prove. Should be a fascinating encounter.

Federer hasn't played since losing to Djokovic in the Semi in Melbourne so the question is will he enter the tournament under prepared or in tip top condition after 6 weeks of training?

He'd never admit it - perhaps not event to himself - but Murray in the first round is not how we would have wanted to ease himself in after a 6 week break.

If you had to call it you'd still fancy Federer to win but Murray has nothing to lose and nothing to fear - when they last met in Cincinnati in 2006 Murray caught Federer on a bad day and took full advantage winning 5 & 4. This should hopefully give him the confidence to take the game to Federer tomorrow night.

Looking at the rest of the draw it is a stong field and there are a number of potentially great matches, including a contest between the power of Tursunov and the guile of Gasquet in round 1; Djokovic v Cilic in round 1, with the winner taking on either Youzhny or Santoro in round 2; and Nadal - Roddick in the quarter final.

Should be a good week.