So far, so good

Grand Slam tennis tournaments are almost aways slow burn. After all the very best players in the world don't get to play each other until the second week.

But emerging stars of the future, plus former champions who have slipped down the ranking but still have the ability to beat almost anyone on their day, means it's never plain sailing for the seeded few.

The first two and a half days of US Open 08 has seen the tournament take shape nicely. Already we have had a handful of five set thrillers. I especially enjoyed Blake v Donald.

Blake showed why so many people (including me) are always rooting for him. Big shots and big heart. But he also showed (again) why he hasn't and probably won't win a slam. His mind and concentration and nerve have a bad habit of wwandering when he needs them the most. Still he's through to round two.

Donald was a revelation. As freakyfrites says he has...

...a brilliant, all-court game in the electric atmosphere of Arthur Ashe stadium. He looked so complete - great lefty serve, ripping forehand, Djokovic-worthy backhand, Blake-like movement and killer feel at net (a talent all his own.) And the most promising development in his game? He was enjoying himself!

Other highlights include Rafa being pushed hard by a player I've literally never heard off, and of course Safin. Marat is usually good value for money and the former champion beat Vince Spadea in 5. But only after a major row with the umpire. Didn't see it myself but here's the report from the BBC:

The Russian had to recover his poise after he was foot-faulted on a second serve at deuce while serving to stay in the fourth set.

Safin received a warning for swearing as he angrily argued with the umpire Carlos Ramos and briefly sat in his chair, refusing to play on.

The double fault gave Spadea a set point, which he converted to take the match into a decider. But despite his anger, Safin broke in the first game of the fifth set and served superbly to seal a place in round two.

Safin was still seething when he answered questions in his post-match press conference. "It's stupid rules that somebody made in 1850 and now they give me the problems with these things and it shouldn't be that way," he said. "How can a guy see... a foot fault... with sunglasses from 35 metres away. It doesn't make any sense."

And finally, good to see Tsonga back in action. I saw the first two sets and it wouldn't have surprised me if he had crashed out. He was terrible. Shot selection was poor and execution even worse. But he shook off the rust after losing the first set and won it in 4.

Wimbledon wrap up

Phew, well I've started to recover from yesterday's final. An amazing match. I've got to say it was so tense at times that it became almost (but not quite!) unenjoyable. Can't imagine what it must have been like for Mirka and Rafa's parents.

So we have a new champion. And a new British hope in Laura Robson. Whilst Andy Murray showed that he has got what it takes, but is not quite there yet. As Nick Bollettieri said in the Independent today:

You only had to see what Rafael Nadal could do to Roger Federer yesterday to know he's capable of making mince out of Titans, let alone out of a hugely promising but still developing 21-year-old in his first Slam quarter-final. Andy got as far as he was meant to. Past the last 16. Out before the semis. He can now go away and get better.

It was so good to see Safin back on fire. Federer and Nadal are on a different level at the moment with Djokovic not far off, but who knows maybe Marat still has one last slam in him. If Ivanisevic can do it. At the very least I hope he can take this form and confidence onto the summer hard courts in the US.

Venus and Serena showed once again that when their heads are in the game you can never underestimate them. Maybe the seeding committee will seed Venus No 1 next year?

And we saw how much the women's game misses Henin. I'm a massive fan of team Williams but whilst they continue to pick and choose their events the tour will miss having an out and out No 1.

Looking ahead to the Olympics, we also saw that on her day Zheng Jie, on home turf, has the potential to take out almost anyone in the Women's game.

And finally I've picked my moment of Wimbledon 2008. It was Rafa serving at Championship point in the 4th set tie break and Roger coming up with the unbelievable backhand passing shot to save the match.

PS - for those of you still waiting for the answers to Wimbledon quiz I'll post them tomorrow or Wednesday.

6-0

Six of the best from the web

* Kamakshi Tandon on tennis.com on the clay season & race for No 1.

* Van at Tennis Talk Anyone bigs up the Davis Cup

* ATP Tennis Blog also has a good Davis Cup preview.

* Nick Bollettierie on Safin's big win in Davis Cup.

* Nate Cunningham praises Roddick's character & personality.

* The Tennis Centre on Davydenko.

Is it the end for Safin?

Marat Safin has a unique place in tennis history as the only man to beat both Federer and Sampras in Grand Slam events and then win the tournaments. Sampras in New York in 2000, Federer in Melbourne in 2005. Neither performance was a fluke.

The “future of tennis” (according to Pete Sampras) was also World No 1 for 9 weeks in 2000, and is a two time Davis Cup winner. But Safin has never fully realised that potential and has often been let down by his body and his head. All too often he has succumbed to both injuries and a tendency of beating himself on court by losing his cool.

For the past year he has been toiling away outside the top 40 and only this week was dumped out of Indian Wells in the first round. His decline underlines how difficult it can be to turn it around once you start to slide down the rankings.

Safin – like plenty of fallen champions before him – finds himself in the classic catch 22. You need ranking points to earn a seeding for the major tournaments, but to accumulate rankings points you need to go deep in tournaments, and this can be tough if you are unseeded.

His draw at this year’s Australian Open is the perfect illustration of how challenging it can be. He came up against former finalist Baghdatis in the second round and was beaten in four. Had he beaten Baghdatis he would have played Hewitt in the next round, and then Djokovic in the 4th round. Had he beaten the eventual champion his reward would have been a semi with Federer.

At 28 Safin has to ask himself does he have what it takes to get his career back on track? I hope the answer is yes - after all Agassi famously did it at a similar age - but life is not getting any easier for Marat as he comes up against a new generation of younger, fitter and hungrier players.

Rafa is breathing down Roger's neck

For some time I’ve been toying with the idea of producing a graph to chart the movement in the rankings gap between Federer and Nadal, the rise of Djokovic and the next generation, as well as the decline of former No 1’s Hewitt and Safin. But let’s face it, life’s too short for number crunching and getting stressed about spreadsheets.

But you don’t need a graph to see that with the publication of the new rankings today Federer is under pressure. After his poor start to 2008 the gap between the World No 1 and Nadal is 350 ranking points, the closest its ever been. In fact it’s the smallest margin Federer has held over the No 2 spot since May 10, 2004 when he led Roddick by the same figure.

And so even though he's had a slow start to the year himself, Nadal finds himself in touching distance of the top spot. As the ATP's Greg Sharko explains the No. 1 ranking can't change hands in Indian Wells, since Nadal is defending title points (500) while Federer lost in the opening round (5). But depending on the results of both players in Indian Wells, then the No. 1 position could be up for grabs going into Miami. Nadal has quarterfinal points to defend (125) while Federer has fourth round points coming off (75).

But it's not that straighforward. What a graph would brilliantly illustrate if only i could find the time (or energy) is that Djokovic is closing fast on Nadal. So Rafa needs to win in Indian Wells and then repeat his previous dominance in the clay season if he is to close the gap on Federer and fend off Djokovic.

So my take on this is the numbers don't lie. Federer is still No 1 (and will be for some time) but the gap IS closer than ever as the chasing pack start to catch up, and 2008 will be Federer's toughest year to date.