Who is defending what on clay?

Monte Carlo Masters* (12-19 April)

Points to defend: Nadal 1,000, Federer 700, Djokovic 450, Murray 150.

Rome Masters (27 April-3 May)

Points to defend: Nadal 10, Federer 250, Djokovic 1,000, Murray 70.

Madrid Masters (10-17 May)

Points to defend: Nadal 1,000, Federer 700, Djokovic 450, Murray 150.

French Open (24 May-7 June)

Points to defend: Nadal 2,000, Federer 1,400, Djokovic 900, Murray 150.

Total: Nadal 4,010, Federer 3,050, Djokovic 2,800, Murray 520.

The numbers speak for themselves. If Murray - who goes into the clay season 170 points behind Djoko and 2,180 behind Roger - can get to grips with the dirt he has a massive opportunity to move up in the rankings.

* Monte Carlo is not a mandatory tournament so players do not have to include results in points total for their ranking.

You gotta read this - Roger 1st among equals

Check out this superb post from Rob York from the Bleacher Report. He looks at how Roger's years of domination - in which every season he achieved more than Sampras at his best - have now been replaced by a new era in which Federer is first among equals.

And there's a bold prediction. Roger to win Wimbledon and the US and re-capture the No 1 spot! You can read it here.

all of which is a nice excuse for a video of the master at work...

Fed heads keep the faith

An ATP poll shows that tennis fans are keeping the faith with Roger.

Here's the extract from the ATP website:

In a poll of more than 65,000 fans, 44 per cent of ATPtennis.com readers believe that the Swiss will join Ivan Lendl as the only player to regain the year-end No. 1 in the South African Airways ATP Rankings after losing it.

Lendl claimed the year-end No. 1 ranking in 1985, '86 and '87 before finishing No. 2 behind Mats Wilander in 1988. He then regained the year-end No. 1 in 1989 and remains the only player in the history of the South African Airways ATP Rankings (since 1973) to achieve that feat.

Quick Poll: Who will finish No. 1 at the end of 2009?
Player Percentage of Vote

1 Roger Federer 44%

2 Rafael Nadal 34%

3 Novak Djokovic 11%

4 Andy Murray 8%

5 Other 3%

What do you think?

The Roger tour bus stops off in Malaysia

As you've no doubt heard, Roger has combined his trip to Shanghai with a couple of exhibitions and promotional events in Malaysia, including The Showdown of Champions in Kuala Lumpur, where he played James Blake in a 1 set exhibition (Roger won), and then teamed up with Borg to play McEnroe and Blake for some dubs. HCFoo's blog (THE place to go for all Asian tennis news) has all the photos and background.

Federer beats Nalbandian

Roger and Nalbandian go back a long way, coming up together through the juniors. And in the early days on the pro tour Nalbandian eclipsed Roger winning their first five encounters.

But then Fed won 8 of the next 9 matches. So Roger went into today's final in Basle with a slender 9-8 head to head record.

Today Federer denied Nalbandian a chance of equalling that record beating the Argentine 6-3 6-4 to secure his 57th career title. The key was Roger's serve (he only dropped 7 points on serve all match)

You can watch the final game below

Murray on the up

Andy Murray has had universally good PR for the past few days. (Not often you can say that but his winning ways have done wonders for his rep).

As ever, Jonathan Overend was on the money this morning when giving his verdict on Murray. He listed Andy's achievements over the past four months which have seen Murray win two masters, reach his first grand slam final, reach No 4 in the world, and beat Federer, Nadal, and Djokovic. The guy is on a roll.

To his credit Murray is prepared to put in the graft. Something his PR and new media team have highlighted to great effect with photos and video on his website.

The hard work is paying off. On the evidence of the past week his serve is much improved. What was a major weakness is now one of his main strengths. Ditto his fitness.

If I was Djoko I'd be starting to get a little nervous, especially with all those points to defend in Melbourne.

Roger takes a break

Sweden has given an awful lot to tennis – Bjorn, Edberg, Wilander, enough said – so I often think it’s a shame that they only have a second / third tier event, an event that is regularly bypassed by the leading players.

That said, I’ve felt for sometime that Roger was putting himself under unnecessary pressure by opting to compete in Stockholm, and so it’s no surprise to see him pull out.

But it did surprise me a little that he appears to have listened to the advice of many Federer fans, and has decided to take an extended break. Here’s the statement from his website

"2008 has been a tough year for me as I was always playing catch up after being diagnosed with mononucleosis at the beginning of the year. I feel fortunate to be healthy again, but I want to remain at the top of the game for many more years to come and go after the #1 ranking again.

In order to do that, I need to get a proper rest and get strong again so that I am 100% fit for the remainder of the year or next year. At this point, I am not sure when I will be ready to play again, but I hope to be back at some point before the end of the year.

I apologize to the tennis fans in Sweden as I was looking forward to playing in Stockholm again. The country has produced so many incredible tennis players and the tournament has such a great history. I hope to be able to come back at some point in the future."

You wouldn’t expect anything else, but good to see the explicit statement of intent about staying on top and regaining No 1. Like Roger I still think that’s possible but when it comes down to it Slams are now more important than the ranking, and this break will give him the best possible preparation for the best possible way to start 2009 - winning the Aussie Open and equalling Pete's record...

Roger sends a message to the doubters

Two words: Pure Class.

Roger was awesome last night and reminded us all of his GOAT credentials. As a colleague said to me today, you knew from almost the second he crunched down his first serve to start the match that he was going to win. That point and the rest of the game was a statement of authority.

He backed that up with his forehand, which in the first and third set, was back to its beautiful, brutal best. And unfortunately Murray couldn't repeat the level of tennis he showed in the semi. More than anything the serve, which was so strong against Rafa, let him down.

Murray will no doubt beat himself up over the performance - which is the natural reaction of a winner - but he can take satisfaction from how far he has travelled in the past few weeks.

And he provided the moment of the tournament, the moment when Murray proved that Nadal is human after all. It's something I'd never seen before.

Rafael Nadal bent over, struggling to regain his breath, after being bettered physically in a base line rally. Proof that Murray's victory was no fluke. You can see it for yourself below

UPDATE: You can read the match stats here and the figure which leaps off the screen and underlines how below par Murray's serve was, is Federer won 41 of the 81 points he received. Roger won more points on the Murray serve than Andy. Ouch.

Did Roddick call it right?

Van is understandably disappointed with Andy Roddick's decision not to represent the US at the Olympics. It says a lot about his game at the moment that he feels he has to write off events, an event that only comes around every 4 years. But I look at Andy Murray's tired, lacklustre performances in Beijing and can't help but think the other Andy made the right call.

I was talking it over with a friend last week and I think Roddick has a real chance at the US Open this year. He's won it once before, and if it wasn't for Federer would have won it again at least once. With Roger no longer invincible (Roddick has already beaten him once this year), and Rafa not being 100% at home on hard court, this year is his best opportunity in a long time.

What's more he's not had to contend with the two long haul flights or crippling humidity, which means he should be great physical condition (provided his back holds up.) The key of course is the draw. Can he avoid Murray, Djoko and Nadal until the final? And can someone else take out Roger before the semi?

Anyway for once I'm going to put my money where my mouth is and I've got great odds: 50 - 1. Please Andy, do it for me!

PS: On the BBC the other day they mentioned that at the Athens games in 2004 the US women's volleyball team had a competition to see who could kiss A-Rod first. Apparently he was chased all over the village. Not sure if this was a factor in his decision not to travel to Beijing…

Is this the break Federer needs to get back on track?

Roger Federer must be feeling pretty happy today. He may get mobbed every time he sets foot in the Olympic Village, and he may not get a chance to actually eat his food in the canteen, but he won’t care. Because the draw is out and it looks good.

Nadal, Djokovic, and Murray – the form player coming into the Olympics – are all in the other half of the draw. OK there are some players in Fed's half who have unexpectedly beaten him recently (step forward Simon and Karlovic) but I can’t imagine lightening will strike twice.

So provided he get’s through his first round encounter with the erratic hard hitting Tursunov, and possible encounters with Canas and Nalbandian, he should have a nice run to the final.

Compare that with Rafa who is likely to get Lleyton in the second round, Querrey or Andreev in the third, Murray in the quarters, and Djokovic in the semi. You wouldn’t bet against Nadal after his recent run, but he will deserve a medal if he comes through that lot.

You can read it here

UPDATE: It just gets better for Roger. Karlovic has pulled out due to illness. Plus, I think Nalbandian may actually be in the other half of the draw, not certain, as the draw document is not very user friendly.

24 hours in Cincy

Well it's been a busy 24 hours in Cincy. Yesterday I watched Andy Murray blow Tursunov off the court with ease. Unfortunately I can't find it on Youtube but if you can, check out the second and third games of the second set.

A series of outrageous shots saw Murray break and then consolidate. Spectacular stuff. The backhand as he broke serve had me jumping out of the chair!

And then of course, shortly after I had put up a post on Roger living on borrowed time, Karlovic took advantage of Roger's lack of confidence to dump him out of the tournament, and hand the No 1 spot to Rafa.

And then today we saw another side of Andy Murray. If yesterday was all sublime skills and shotmaking, today was street-fighting and mental toughness as he can from a set down to beat Carlos Moya.

One final thought before I head to bed, you must read Bodo's diagnosis on Federer's problems, it's all down to Seven-Day Tournament Influenza. I kid you not...

Fed on borrowed time

It seems like a long time ago that Rafa was suggesting Djoko would over take him in rankings. After his shock defeat in Rome he said:

"The logical thing is that he goes past me here in Hamburg, or at Roland Garros or Wimbledon."

But since then he's racked up a 29 match winning streak on 3 different surfaces.

Meanwhile Federer is still shaking off the lingering Wimbledon hang-over, struggling to get past Ginepri and (as we speak) Karlovic. And as everyone knows Rafa will unseat Roger if he wins Cincy and Fed fails to make the semis.

And no matter what happens over this weekend an imminent change at the top looks almost inevitable. Roger's likely to be a victim of his own success.

He usually rules throughout the summer hard court and end of season events. But of course this means victory in Cincy or New York, or the Masters, will effectively be tredding water in the rankings contest, whilst Rafa can eat into his lead by surpassing his comparatively poor performance in the second half of the year.

I know this sounds a bit defeatist - and true champions like Federer simply don't think this way - but I don't think it is necessarily so bad for Federer.

It will hurt his pride - and perhaps his confidence - to slip to number two, but also gives him a chance to take it a bit easier in the second half of the year, flush out any last effects of the mono, and come back re-charged in 09.

Or maybe Nadal will go out in the first round of the Olympics or the US and Roger will march on! After all, its been a mixed up kinda year...

What should Roger do?

It’s easy to over-react after yet another defeat for Federer– great players don’t lose it over-night – but it has been a bad year for Roger, and it just seems to get worse. His early exit in Toronto means Nadal can cut the gap to 300 points if he wins on Sunday.

Now we’ve been here before. Back in March the gap between Roger and Rafa was only 350points, the closest it has ever been. The difference being of course that Nadal had so many clay court points to defend that he could only topple Federer if Roger bombed at the French and the Masters events.

But as we enter the hard court season it’s a different story. Nadal has less to defend, making it much easier for him to gain ground.

Now Federer’s won 12 Grand Slams and has been at No 1 for as long as I can remember, so there’s no need for the guy to take advice from the likes of me! But I’ve been racking my brains to think what I would do if I were in his shoes. Here’s my 3 point plan:

1) Hire a coach. The chasing pack have closed the gap. Roger needs to look again at his game to see what he can do to respond to the challenge from Rafa, Djoko, and the next generation like Murray and Gasquet. It’s also hard to appreciate the stress and pressure of being No 1. Roger needs to share the load, and get some fresh perspective.

2) Can the exhibitions. When Sampras was chasing history he had little time for Davis Cup let alone exhibitions. They may be fun for the fans (and for Federer) but the bottom line is they are a waste of time and energy.

3) Cut himself some slack. This is a bit more radical but here we go… Fed’s been at No 1 for 234 weeks. An amazing run. But something has to give eventually, and when it comes to it Greatness is measured in Slams not weeks at the top spot. Far better for Federer to win the US Open (and / or the Olympics) and finish the year as No 2, then burn himself out for next year playing two many minor tournaments to defend his ranking. So bin Stockholm.

Let me know what you think. Am I missing anything?

Wimbledon wrap up

Phew, well I've started to recover from yesterday's final. An amazing match. I've got to say it was so tense at times that it became almost (but not quite!) unenjoyable. Can't imagine what it must have been like for Mirka and Rafa's parents.

So we have a new champion. And a new British hope in Laura Robson. Whilst Andy Murray showed that he has got what it takes, but is not quite there yet. As Nick Bollettieri said in the Independent today:

You only had to see what Rafael Nadal could do to Roger Federer yesterday to know he's capable of making mince out of Titans, let alone out of a hugely promising but still developing 21-year-old in his first Slam quarter-final. Andy got as far as he was meant to. Past the last 16. Out before the semis. He can now go away and get better.

It was so good to see Safin back on fire. Federer and Nadal are on a different level at the moment with Djokovic not far off, but who knows maybe Marat still has one last slam in him. If Ivanisevic can do it. At the very least I hope he can take this form and confidence onto the summer hard courts in the US.

Venus and Serena showed once again that when their heads are in the game you can never underestimate them. Maybe the seeding committee will seed Venus No 1 next year?

And we saw how much the women's game misses Henin. I'm a massive fan of team Williams but whilst they continue to pick and choose their events the tour will miss having an out and out No 1.

Looking ahead to the Olympics, we also saw that on her day Zheng Jie, on home turf, has the potential to take out almost anyone in the Women's game.

And finally I've picked my moment of Wimbledon 2008. It was Rafa serving at Championship point in the 4th set tie break and Roger coming up with the unbelievable backhand passing shot to save the match.

PS - for those of you still waiting for the answers to Wimbledon quiz I'll post them tomorrow or Wednesday.

Play of the week

Mercedes ATP Play of the week. Roger Federer v Nicolas Kiefer. Stunning, on the run, forehand down the line winner from Federer. Reminds me of Roger breaking Rafa in the 5th set of the Wimbledon final last year. Watch it here.

Shot of the year?

He may not have bagged that elusive slam but Federer did depart Paris with shot of the tournament, no, lets call it what it is, shot of the year.

Here's how Jonathan Overend on his BBC blog described it:

It was an off-forehand, crosscourt to Ancic's backhand side, but the ball stayed low and Federer's entire body shape suggested a shot down the line.

He whipped his arm through, snapped the wrist alarmingly, and next thing you knew the ball was landing on the line at a ridiculous angle.

Ancic applauded, Federer roared his approval, nobody else could believe it so they just got to their feet.

I've seen Federer play similar shots a hundred times, but this was different because it was hit so hard.

To generate the angle, and get the ball down in time after crossing the net, it usually needs a softer hit.

But this was smacked at full pelt and the poor ball should have been retired hurt.

Watch it here.

Even scarier tennis from Nadal

To (mis)quote Depeche Mode, everyone has their own personal Nadal. The opponent who has that hold over you. Who beats you no matter what you try, how much you work on your strokes, or how you change your game plan.

I played my Nadal on Sunday, appropriately enough on an artificial clay court. It must be the 8th or 9th time we've played. They've all been some of the best matches I've been lucky enough to play in, and I've lost them all.

Sunday was no different, although like Federer in Rome a few years back, I did have a matchpoint which I failed to convert.

A few hours later the real Nadal destroyed Federer. For all us Federer fans it was a car crash of a match. That Nadal won is no surprise but to win with a bread stick and a bagel against Federer is simply unbelievable.

It wasn't just the scoreline that blew me away, but also the way Nadal's game has (further) improved, especially his backhand and serve.I won't try to explain why Nadal won and why Federer was made to look so out of his depth. Nick Bollettieri has already done it and his analysis is a must read.

The only grain (crumb would be overstating it) of comfort for Federer is that he defended his points and goes into grass season with a 1,000 points lead over Nadal and Djokovic in the rankings.

I really can't wait to see how will Federer respond not only to the drubbing but the fact that Nadal will come into Wimbledon with maximum confidence and momentum.

High stakes tennis

The pressure is well and truly on at the top of the rankings. It's what Alex Ferguson would describe as squeaky bum time.

Djokovic's win in Rome and Nadal's early exit have really mixed things up. I predicted on Sunday night that the points gap would shrink to 400 or so points.

Turns out its even closer that than - just 310 points separate No 2 and No 3.

Meanwhile, Federer has put real distance between himself and Nadal, with a cushion of 1,400 points. As I wrote the other day, Federer's results on clay to date should be enough for him to hold on to his current position for a while yet.

For Rafa it's a different story with the Spaniard appearing to concede that Djokovic will overtake him in the next two months. Today he said "The logical thing is that he goes past me here in Hamburg, or at Roland Garros or Wimbledon."

It's not like Nadal to give up without a fight - maybe it's mind games - but it shows how tough it is at the top right now.

How the clay has saved Federer's top spot

Two months ago, when he was stuck in his slump, there was a real chance Federer could lose the No 1 spot to Nadal before Wimbledon.

When the ATP rankings came out on 10th March the gap between Roger and Rafa was only 350 points, the closest it has ever been. To put it context, winning a Masters Event like Monte Carlo is worth 500 points and the French 1,000 points.

Federer then scraped together enough points in Indian Wells and Miami to extend his lead to 670 points coming into the clay season.

So Nadal was within touching distance.

The problem of course for Nadal is that even if he won all the clay tournaments he would not necessarily close the gap, because he's only matching his achievements (and points) from 2007. Rafa also needed Roger to struggle on clay. Something that seemed possible given his difficulties in the US.

Which is why Federer's recent revival has been so important and impressive. 4 weeks in, point for point, it's Federer who's having the better clay court season.

Federer picked up 175 bonus points by winning Estoril, defended his points in Monte Carlo by reaching the final, and has already gone further in Rome than last year's third round exit.

Meanwhile Rafa matched his 2007 victories in Barcelona and Monte Carlo but his shock second round exit in Rome means he drops 465 points.

Which means Roger will increase his lead of 845 points over Nadal when the rankings come out on Monday, giving him a decent cushion if he drops points in Hamburg or Paris.

There's an awful lot of tennis still to come this year but if he remains at No 1 until the end of the year, he'll probably look back and regard clay as the turning point.

Federer strikes back

A good day's work for Federer today as he got one over Canas, his (other) nemesis.

Going into the match Canas had a 3 - 2 advantage in head to head results. But unlike last year when Canas enjoyed two back to back victories over Federer, today it was pretty comfortable for the world No 1.

Federer won in straight sets 6-3 6-3. The highlights are below. Check out the rally when Federer breaks Canas in the second set with the score at 3-3. It's about 2 mins 30 seconds in.